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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Data centers are driving the highest electricity demand in 15 years... making the AI race key to oil as well." The AI boom is physically constrained by power availability. As demand hits a 15-year peak, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Utilities with capacity (like VST and CEG) possess the scarcity value required to power these data centers. LONG. The structural increase in demand from "new tech" provides a tailwind for power generation assets. Regulatory caps on power pricing or slower-than-expected AI capex deployment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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"Supply from Guyana, Canada, and Brazil is surging. OPEC Plus faces a tough choice. Lower output or lower oil prices." The market is facing a classic oversupply shock from non-OPEC sources. If OPEC+ does not cut output further (sacrificing more market share), the natural economic release valve is lower prices to clear the market. SHORT. The "Oil Balancing Act" is skewed toward downside price pressure due to the surge in new supply. A surprise geopolitical escalation or an unexpected, aggressive production cut by OPEC+. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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"2026 kicks off the largest supply expansion in history... traders brace for a global surplus." A "tsunami" of supply is fundamentally bearish for prices. However, the speaker notes that "project delays may be key to Henry Hub volatility." WATCH. While the long-term trend appears bearish due to surplus, the trade opportunity lies in short-term volatility plays caused by infrastructure delays. Faster-than-expected project completions exacerbating the glut immediately. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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"Will green back and oil correlations hold? Central bank surprises may bring big moves for WTI in 2026." Macro liquidity and currency strength are acting as primary drivers for energy prices. If the US Dollar (UUP) strengthens on central bank surprises, the inverse correlation suggests WTI will fall, regardless of physical fundamentals. WATCH. Monitor the correlation coefficient; if it breaks, the macro hedge relationship unravels. A decoupling of the USD/Commodity inverse correlation due to idiosyncratic supply shocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Five Trends That Will Drive Energy Markets in...
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